Bush’s Poll Numbers

On Monday, November 14th, a new CNN/USA Today/Gallup poll was released revealing yet another decline in Bush’s approval ratings, as well his lowest marks ever in three other categories: terrorism, trustworthiness, and whether the Iraq war was worthwhile. In this, the most recent of several low approval ratings, only 37% of Americans polled thought President Bush was doing a good job. This is a two-point drop since the last poll performed by Gallup in October. When asked about the numbers in the morning press conference, the White House Press Secretary commented that the White House doesn’t pay attention to poll numbers and that these figures do not affect policy: “We have a positive agenda for the future….you can get caught up in the polls; we don’t. Polls are snapshots in time.”

However, these approval ratings are some of the worst ever seen by a President, even compared to low ratings of other second term Presidents. President Nixon was only thirteen points lower at a 24% approval rating just prior to resigning from the presidency due to the Watergate Scandal, one of the worst scandals in the history of the presidency. Even President Clinton in the height of the Whitewater scandal enjoyed an approval rating twenty points higher than President Bush does now. When asked about the President’s ability as a leader, a former strong point for President Bush, they were split at 49% each between the President being a strong leader and a weak leader.

The other measures looked at in this most recent poll brought nothing but bad news to the Administration, which is used to high approval ratings. The 48% approval rating of President Bush’s handling of the war is a far cry from his high approval ratings immediately following the terrorist attacks of 9/11. Shortly after those attacks, in November of 2001, President Bush had an overall approval rating of 87% and an 86% rating on terrorism, a staggering show of support for a recently elected President after a hotly contested election. In contrast, the 48% approval of his current handling of the war marks a seven point decline in the last two months, and is particularly stark when compared to the 49% disapproval. When respondents were asked about Bush’s trustworthiness, 52% said he isn’t trustworthy while only 46% believe he is. In another question, they were asked whether they trust Bush more than Clinton, and they responded as follows; 48% said they trust Bush less than Clinton, only 36% said they trusted him more than President Clinton, and 15% said they trusted them about the same.

When the poll questions shifted to elections and Bush’s support for candidates in those elections, the results became even dimmer for the President. When asked whether they would vote for a candidate supported by President Bush, 56% of registered voters said they would likely vote against a local candidate supported by Bush while only 34% said the opposite. Only 9% of respondents said that their first choice in next year’s election would be a Republican who supports Bush on every major issue. When questioned about who should have control over Congress, 46% said the country would be better off if Congress where controlled by Democrats, while only 34% backed a GOP majority.

In another poll conducted by FOX News, the trend was the same. They found that 36% of Americans approve and 53% disapprove of the job President Bush has been doing. This is a five-point drop from two weeks ago and a fourteen-point drop since the beginning of his second term. According to their poll, this drop is not due solely to a general loss of confidence in the President by Republicans. It is more than likely attributed to double digit drops in approval by groups key to the President’s electoral success: a 26-point drop among independents, a 16-point drop among women, a 15-point drop among white voters, and an 11-point drop among men.

According to Ross Baker, a professor of political science at Rutgers University, the recent ratings are “an ominous sign for President Bush.” Bush ran for office in 2000 with a pledge to uphold “honor and dignity” after former President Clinton’s impeachment scandal. These poll results are crucial to the Bush Administration in several ways: such low confidence in his performance could affect his ability to continue with his second term agenda, to effectively campaign for Republicans in the next elections, and to easily work through the nomination of Judge Samuel Alito. If the President’s numbers continue on the current track, the mood of the country may deal a significant blow to the hopes of the Republicans to keep their hold on the majority in the Midterm elections, and possibly even the next Presidential election in 2008. In the current climate of distrust of Republicans leadership and the President himself, these candidates for election/re-election need a significant bump of support from someone thought of highly by the party they support. In recent years this has been the President for the Republican candidates, but at present it seems that the President’s support won’t be much help.

A case in point is the recent elections in Virginia. On one of Bush’s trips there, the Republican candidate for Governor, Jerry Kilgore, didn’t join him at a rally on national security. The night before the election, President Bush made an eleventh hour stop to endorse Kilgore, who was in a dead heat in the polls with his Democratic opponent, Tim Kaine. On Election Day, Kilgore lost by more then 5 percentage points - a significant drop. Usually, candidates endorsed by a sitting President can expect exactly the opposite — a bump. The drop in his numbers could also significantly affect the President’s hopes of confirming his new nominee for the Supreme Court, Judge Samuel Alito, early next year. Judge Alito is already being criticized for being too far from the mainstream by many Senate Democrats, and this latest weakening of the President cannot help that nomination.